Bitcoin CAGR and the 14% hurdle
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DATA FAIL
Top-to-top growth
A top is a closing high followed by a fall of at least 50% before any new closing high. Tops must be at least 2 years apart; when two are closer, the higher one counts. CAGR = (end ÷ start)^(365.25 ÷ days) − 1. History, not a forecast.
Top-to-top readings sit under the chart.
Bitcoin daily close, log scale
- Cycle top (rule above)
- Latest confirmed top
- 50% fall, but under 2 years from a higher top (not counted)
- Bitcoin daily close, log scale
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Each pair of successive tops. Shrink = this CAGR ÷ the one before. Fall = deepest close before the next high.
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The 14% hurdle
Compound growth a year against a 14% yardstick. The gap is in percentage points.
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CAGR converter
Type any start, target and number of years. Worked out in your browser. Nothing is sent or stored.
14.9% a year
▲ +0.9 pts, above the 14% hurdle
Rules
Rules: hurdle 14% a year; trailing window 4 years; a top needs a 50% fall and must be at least 2 years from the previous top. Bitcoin is the Coinbase BTC-USD daily UTC close; gold is Yahoo GC=F.
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